Zoroaster
A model that reads English Wikipedia's edit history and tries to call what the world does next, as a dated prophecy published every night.
The first stage ranks pages. Trained on 133 million revisions across 9.7 million pages — three years of edit history, some 22GB of dumps streamed a page at a time so memory never depends on the size of the corpus — a gradient-boosted model scores every recently edited page by how likely it is to burst tomorrow: far more edits than usual, from at least two separate editors. On the held-out months 74 of its top 100 pages drew a lasting edit the next day, against 58 for the best simple rule, and in a live backtest about one in five of each day's top 100 burst as predicted, twice what ranking by yesterday's edit count manages. Every feature is strictly point-in-time, computed from days before the one being scored — a rule worth a test of its own, since an early version leaked the future through its burst scores and flattered itself nicely.
The second stage writes. Qwen2.5-0.5B and 1.5B, fine-tuned with QLoRA on a single 8GB card, learn to produce the text an edit actually inserted, given the page, the date, and which of its linked pages were bursting the day before. Fine-tuning cuts the perplexity of real inserted text from 15.6 to 6.6 at the smaller size and 5.3 at the larger. The useful negative result: what helps is the neighbouring page's name — a singer's page gaining "She performed at the 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony" — while summarising what actually changed on that neighbour adds nothing measurable.
The site is the part that can be wrong in public. Each night a 7B model reads the day's top pages and the week's stories from Wikipedia's current events portal as they stood at midnight, resolves every date relative to the day ahead, and writes at most ten dated predictions. Guardrails drop any that name an individual, that have an organization doing or suffering harm, or that merely restate their evidence; one that invents a number its sources never gave goes back to be rewritten. Everything is labelled a machine-generated forecast rather than news, a judge grades each prediction on its due date (not yet published, while it is checked against hand grades), and a "how the prophet works" page shows the ranked pages beside how the previous day's list actually turned out.
- Python
- LightGBM
- PyTorch
- QLoRA
- Parquet








